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3 Answers

Help with weather briefing

Asked by: 1900 views
Student Pilot, Weather

Hi I'm a student pilot (Cessna 172s) that is scheduled to have my first cross-country solo tomorrow June 11th. It's supposed to have scattered storms and I was wondering if someone could help me figure out if it's likely if I'll fly tomorrow or not. I'm flying from I-69 Clermont County Ohio to Bolton field KTZR to George town GEO back to I69.

Any help would be appreciated thanks

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3 Answers



  1. Gregory on Jun 10, 2018

    A clarification, I’m not a flight instructor: I’m a 700-hour private pilot who’s done more weather briefings than I care to tell. I’ve been in your shoes so I figured I would chime in with a non-professional opinion.

    First of all, I think you already know the answer; you just don’t want to admit it to yourself. We’re fortunate in General Aviation in that we’re doing this for fun: there’s no schedules to meet so we can always wait for another day. Looking at the weather along your route of flight, I would personally postpone the flight.

    You’re looking at the thunderstorm warnings and feeling concerned, which is a good start. I looked at the TAFs for KLCK (11nm SE of your destination, Bolton) and they’re projecting 1200-foot overcast ceilings tomorrow. In my opinion, that’s an immediate no-go: those clouds are too low for a student pilot.

    Let me add a few tools to your toolbelt.

    NOAA publishes a document called an Area Forecast Discussion, which is where the meteorologists write their opinions and interpretations about what they think is happening with the weather in plain English. I find it very useful. You can access it here: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&glossary=1

    NOAA also publishes something called the MOS Ceiling Height chart. MOS stands for Model Output Statistics — this chart is a graphical depiction of what their atmospheric computer model thinks about cloud ceilings. You can access it here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/MAV.BCIG_008.html

    Note that the MOS is predicting low clouds for almost your entire route of flight. You don’t want low clouds: they increase your workload, and it’s more difficult to identify landmarks when you’re at lower altitudes.

    Good luck, have fun, and stay safe!

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  2. KDS on Jun 10, 2018

    Truly, the best person to ask that question of is your flight instructor.

    Personally speaking, I wouldn’t send a student up on a first solo with that in the forecast, but your instructor is better able to assess the situation than I am.

    Meanwhile, this link may be helpful reading.

    https://www.reference.com/science/worse-scattered-isolated-thunderstorms-65a8a2d2e07a1b01

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  3. musket on Jun 16, 2018

    For some years now pilots have begun self-briefing weather and there was little instruction how to do that. I suggest going to: https://www.faasafety.gov/spans/events/eventlist.aspx, and click the “show webinars only” button. Ms Delia Colvin gives webinars (for free) very frequently and she will walk you through getting a thorough weather brief. Or you can simply Google Delia Colvin and/or fly-rite. I’ve learned plenty listening to the webinars.

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